Not Expecting Much More Upside In $CF With Bear Call Spreads

7/19/12
Closing these down now to take the added risk off the table.  Total profit turned out to be $45.  The original margin started out as $2500 but then went up to $5000 on the 6/27 adjustment.

Trade:
BTC CF July 12 170/180 bull put spreads for ($0.05-$0.02) x 100 x 5 lots = $60 paid vs. $500 received = $440 profit
BTC CF July 12 210/220 bear call spreads for ($0.30-$0.05) x 100 x 5 lots = $125 paid vs. $335 received = $210 profit

6/27/12
Well my initial thesis turned out to be wrong.  The stock bounced off the 50-day sma and went on a tear, aided by improved fundamentals and commodity price action.  Closing down the call spreads which were under fire, and redeploying as iron condors to pay for it.  Note that above 200, the strikes are 10-wide.  Ended up having to double up on the margin requirements, but it allowed me to go more than 10% OTM on each side.  Approximately 87% chance of each side expiring worthless, or 72% for the condor.

Trade:
BTC CF July 12 195/200 bear call spreads for ($4.53-$2.87) x 100 x 5 lots = $830 paid vs. $225 received = $605 loss
Sold CF July 12 170/160 bull put spreads for ($1.63-$0.63) x 100 x 5 lots = $500 premium received
Sold CF July 12 210/220 bear call spreads for ($1.01-$0.34) x 100 x 5 lots = $335 premium received

6/21/19
Not expecting much more upside after retracing more than 50% of the losses from the May high.  Stock bounced off the top of the Bollinger band and is now fighting with the 50-day sma again.  Keeping the short strike up over the Feb high just in case I'm wrong, which is over 3 ATRs away.  Current probability of max profit is 86%.

Should the stock keep pulling back closer to the 200-day sma, I'll look to sell bull put spreads to condor these, based on my thesis in this post.

Trade:
Sold CF July 12 195/200 bear call spreads for ($0.95-$0.50) x 100 x 5 lots = $225 premium received