Monday, September 24, 2012

Monday Market Conditions 9/24/12 $SPX $SPY $VIX $VXX

Over the weekend, Apple (AAPL) sold more than 5 million new iPhones in the first weeknd, but that's about half of what analysts expected.  In the EZ, Spain is running lottery bonds, and Germany is getting impatient

The S&P continues to consolidate, forming a potential bull flag.  Will have to see how it plays out.  Regardless, the long-standing channel up remains intact.  We could keep riding this up for a while.

Volatility and fear still remain depressed.  Not many known-unknowns left out there in the near future now that Ben, Draghi, and Japan have announced stimulus.  Much of the important news is priced in.

Even with the market still edging lower, the McClellan Oscillator is barely negative.  Not much conviction in these down days recently.  The percentage of stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages remains astronomically high at ~80%, and the put/call ratio is still call-heavy.

-Technology is flagging after breaking out.  Could be preparing for another blastoff.
-Financials, Energy, & Miners all sliding after the big QE3 pop two weeks ago.

-Small caps appear to be back to risk-off, supported by...
-The defensive Utilities sector outperforming.
-Industrials turning back down, confirming weak global manufacturing.
-Not a good sign when the typically forward-looking Transportation sector makes lower lows.


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