Monday, September 10, 2012

Monday Market Conditions 9/10/12 $SPY $SPX $VXX $VIX

Last week the markets got a big boost after Super Mario announced that he is willing to open up the checkbook to help the EZ.  This produced a 30-point run up in the S&P, which someone told you to watch out forRetail sales appear to be up, but are hurt by rising food and gas prices.  NFL ticket prices and attendance also point to a recovery that hasn't fully taken hold yet.

The S&P 500 closed well outside the Bollinger band Friday and 7% above the 200-day.  The market was due for some digestion, and we got a bit this afternoon.  I remember commenting Thursday that we saw panic buying as those investors on the sidelines rushed to get into the market before they missed the move.  That tends to happen at the end of bull runs, but she could have more steam left before she's done.

Things should get real interesting with all the important meetings Wed & Thurs.  Unless we get solidly good news (like full-blown QE3), I expect more selloff.

Lots of big swings in the fear index lately.  Down as low at 13.5, up to 19, and back down to 14 before closing above 16 again.  Up 13% today with the markets down ~0.6% is interesting to note.

The McClellan Oscillator hit its highest point since early July last week.  Today it is still positive but nowhere near overbought.  The number of stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages, however, is extremely overbought at nearly 81%, while the put/call ratio is at the lowest it's been since March.  Everybody on one side of the boat right now.

-The Tech sector trend broke and led the market down after leading it up.
-Financials continue to outperform the market.
-Energy appears to be making a rounded top.
-Materials are being bought up but are hitting resistance.

-Small caps are making a nice recovery off the Aug-1 low point.
-Utilities, industrials, and transports all taking a dive since July.

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