Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Time For Bearish Call Spreads in Mastercard?

Mastercard (MA) knifed through the bottom of the long-term wedge it traded in for nearly 6 months, and is currently below its 50-day sma.  The easy trade is to sell put spreads at or under 385.  Would give a nice buffer but the uptrend has been broken and the stock is starting to act weak.  Could be more downside coming.  Couple possible setups that I'm watching develop for June spreads.

First scenario is that it continues trading below the bottom of the wedge trendline.  Remember: support becomes resistance and vice versa.  In this case, would consider selling credit CALL spreads, but with the intent of keeping the short strike at least 10% above the stock price.  Probably somewhere up in the 470-490s, depending on the premium available.  May even look to iron condor this one if the stock starts going sideways, but long way to go before that happens.

If the stock price continues to drop, going to watch the 390-400 area as there's a base and some support from the post-Q1 earnings move.  We could get a bounce or lose it and watch that become resistance, too.

In January we had a similar fall out of the wedge only to double-bottom and get right back into it a month later.  We could have the exact same kind of move happen here too.  In that case I'd continue playing the same range as before, selling credit put spreads with the short strike under 405, if possible.

Going to let the next few days play out and let the chart tell me what to do with this one.

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